Welcome to the fifth edition of the DraftKings Fantasy PGA Sleepers column. I will be here each week to offer a few daily fantasy golf sleepers. I will try to weave in players from a few pricing tiers – this won’t be a column on the five cheapest guys each week and why they have a 1% chance of making the cut.
A balanced lineup in Daily Fantasy Golf is important so I want to offer you opportunities to construct lineups with sleepers at a variety of price points. As always, suggestions are appreciated to help improve the column and so we can better meet your DFS needs.
We leave Florida and head off to Texas for the Valero Texas Open played at TPC San Antonio on the AT&T Oaks course. The Oaks course is a par-72, 7,435 yard course. It’s a long course, but the narrow fairways and punitive bunkers take some of the air out of the long hitters’ ability to outdrive the hazards.
The tournament has been held at TPC San Antonio since 2010 so any results prior to 2010 aren’t useful in evaluating course history.
These aren’t high end prices, but we’re looking for premium players at a discount rate.
Russell Knox ($7,600): Knox is a player who the odds makers like, but DraftKings doesn’t share the same optimism. Knox’s salary is seven spots lower than the odds makers believe his chance of winning the tournament is. He finished T26 last year at the Valero and has made three cuts in a row so he’s in solid form. He does a fine job getting to the green (27th in GIR) and is a relatively accurate driver of the ball (50th in driving accuracy) so he should be a great value this week. Oh, he’s also Scottish and I hear it can get windy in Scotland from time to time just like it can here in San Antonio.
The Soft Middle
Looking for some soft pricing in the lower tiers.
Pat Perez ($6,500): Perez has played here infrequently, but has been successful whenever he’s been here (T11 last year, T5 in 2011 and T22 in 2010). He missed the cut last week so he’ll probably fly under the radar last week, but last week broke a streak of eight straight made cuts.
El Cheapo Guapo
They won’t cost you much, but they have real upside. And they sure are handsome.
Geoff Ogilvy ($6,100): Ogilvy offers the second best value this week based on the odds/DraftKings salary disparity. He is a full 23 spots lower in salary than implied by his spot in the odds to win. Beyond the disparity in salary/odds he’s had some success here with two top 25 finishes including a T11 last year. The Aussie can play in poor conditions and rain and wind can crop up here at the TPC. He’s made three cuts in a row, but no finish better than T46 in those three starts and won’t be high on anyone’s list.
Marc Warren ($5,400): The Scotsman came to the States a couple of weeks ago and handled Doral to the tune of a T17. He’s missed one cut (at Abu Dhabi) on the season and has five top 25 finishes in 2015 in six tourneys. He doesn’t have anything else in his profile that screams success, but his form is excellent.
Each week, I’ll throw one player out there who has one thing working for him. He’s probably got a less than 10% chance of making the cut (of course everyone makes the cut this week), but if you want gamble in larger GPPs you need a unicorn on your side.
Justin Hicks ($5,000): Hicks has some of the statistics (ninth in driving accuracy, tenth in distance from edge of the fairway) we look for this week. He did finish solo 15th last year at the Valero. However, he’s only made two of 13 cuts all season long. His form wasn’t quite as bad last year entering the Valero but he was off a T74 at the Palmer Invitational the week before putting up the 15th place finish.