Welcome to the latest edition of the DraftKings Fantasy PGA Sleepers column. We head to the Crowne Invitational at Colonial this week. I’m back to offer a few picks for this week’s PGA slate. As always, I will try to weave in players from a few pricing tiers – this won’t be a column on the five cheapest guys each week and why they have a 1% chance of making the cut.
A balanced lineup in Daily Fantasy Golf is important so I want to offer you opportunities to construct lineups with sleepers at a variety of price points. As always, suggestions are appreciated to help improve the column and so we can better meet your DFS needs.
We got another unicorn through last week with Steven Bowditch and that’s always exciting. This week we tee it up for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. The Colonial Country Club course is a beautiful 7,204 yard par 70 layout. The track has been a Tour stop every year since 1946, held a U.S Open and a U.S. Women’s Open. This is a classic layout with narrow fairways. It is a shot maker’s dream.
The weather looks like we could have thunderstorms at any time during the four days. It is that time of the year in the South as the weather can change in the blink of an eye. As always, check in on the weather as we get closer to the Thursday start.
The course has only two par 5s and as a result we’ll focus on some different golfers this week than in week’s past.
Driving Accuracy – It’s a tight course. The players need to keep the ball on the course and they won’t have much fairway to work with.
GIR – Get onto the fairway, get to the green, putt. Repeat.
Par 4 Scoring – There are only two par fives, so players will need to pick up strokes on the 12 par fours.
Distance from Edge of the Fairway – I’ll take a gander at this stat as well as it tells you who does the best job of keeping the ball in the middle of the fairway.
As always, you should examine Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green every week.
This is also a smaller field (as it is an invitational) so no more than 125 players are expected, yet the cut rules remain the same with top 70 and ties making it through to the weekend so you can take some more risks with this field.
These aren’t high end prices, but we’re looking for premium players at a discount rate.
Kevin Kisner ($9,100): Kisner missed the cut at Colonial his first time out last year. However, this is the new and improved Kisner! He fits the profile of a successful player here as he’s 41st in par 4 scoring, 38th in driving accuracy, 62nd in distance from the center of the fairway and 86th in GIR. He’s been on a great run in his last four tournaments where he’s lost in a playoff twice.
The Soft Middle
Looking for some soft pricing in the lower tiers.
Russell Knox ($8,200): Knox is my statistical darling this week as he sits atop my rankings as he’s 10th in par 4 scoring, 11th in GIR, 24th in driving accuracy and 12th in distance from the center of the fairway. He’s made four straight cuts and has two top 20s in that run. He finished T21 here last year in his only trip to Colonial. I expect even better results this year.
Robert Streb ($8,000): Streb started out hot-fire in the early season leading the Tour in FedEx Cup points in the early going putting up five top 10s including a win before February. Then, he went on a run where he missed five of eight cuts. However, he looks to be back as he placed T30 at THE PLAYERS and followed that up with a T4 at Quail Hollow. He’s 19th in par 4 scoring and 26 th in GIR and finished T38 here last year.
El Cheapo Guapo
They won’t cost you much, but they have real upside. And they sure are handsome.
Geoff Ogilvy ($7,400): Ogilvy caught my eye with the significant difference in Vegas odds and his rank in DK’s salary list. He’s a full 19 spots lower in salary than he should be based on his odds to win. He missed the cut last year, but his history shows 7 of 10 cuts made including one top 10. He comes in off his best finish of the season (T7) at the Wells Fargo.
Jason Bohn ($7,300): Bohn is back here for a second week. And his T9 was more than we could have asked for. So, let’s see if we can score again. He’s 16th in par 4 scoring, 13th in GIR and eighth in Driving Accuracy so he checks out statistically as well. He missed the cut at this tourney last year, but has made the cut in six of eight tries including two top 20 finishes.
John Huh ($6,400): Huh is like Ogilvy in that he seems underpriced for his odds to win (he’s 34 spots lower than he should be). He missed the cut at Colonial last year, but he had a T11 and T5 in his other two appearances. He’s alternated made and missed cuts the last four weeks, but had a run of five straight cuts made prior to that including two top 20s. He’s an accurate driver (15 th) and is a bit avobe average on par 4s (81st).
Each week, I’ll throw one player out there who has one thing working for him. He’s probably got a less than 10% chance of making the cut, but if you want gamble in larger GPPs you need a unicorn on your side.
Colt Knost ($5,500): Knost is a short hitter rating 182nd out of 204 qualified golfers. He’s a short man. But, he has some elements to his game that suit this course. He’s an accurate driver of the ball (7th) along with a 42nd place in GIR. He’s average on the par 4s with a standing of 81st heading into the tournament this week. He’s travelled here four times and never made the cut. There’s no time like the present to make his first weekend at the Colonial.